|>>|| No. 81485
I don't normally do this but I was bored so decided to take a more in depth look at the figures on the latest YouGov survey. Here's a summary of things that stood out to me, it's mostly expected. In general, the poor favoured all things regarding brexit and the proposals than the rich.
Voting intention of Leave voters: 58% CON, 10% LAB, 3% LD, 24% UKIP
Voting intention of Remain voters: 26% CON, 40% LAB, 20% LD, 0% UKIP
Women appear significantly more likely to vote Labour (23% of men, 28% of women)
The Tories are ahead with all age groups except 18-24 which are 25% CON, 45% LAB, 11% LD, 5% UKIP
This is interesting: Labour support is higher with ABC1 social grades:
ABC1: 42% CON, 26% LAB, 14% LD, 9% UKIP
C2DE: 41% CON, 25% LAB, 8% LD, 17% UKIP
London: 41% CON, 35% LAB, 11% LD, 7% UKIP
Scotland: 26% CON, 19% LAB, 11% LAB, 41% SNP
Remain voters seem marginally more likely to vote in the next election than Leave voters but only by a smidge.
38% of 18-24 year olds 'Absolutely certain to vote' versus 72% of 65+. 16% of 18-24 year olds 'Certain not to vote'.
Scotland is far and away the place people are most likely to vote with 75% 'Absolutely likely', the other regions 55-60%. Voter disilluisonment seems highest in the Midlands/Wales/North, somewhat unsurprisingly.
46% believe Britain was right to vote to leave the EU, 42% believe Britain was wrong.
6% of Remain voters believe it was right, 4% of Leave voters believe it was wrong.
7% of Remain voters believ ethe government is negotiating Britain's exit 'very well', versus 3% of leave voters. 15% of remain voters believe it's doing 'fairly well', versus 42% of leave voters.
When it comes to the effect of Brexit on individual issues (jobs, NHS, immigration, influence) people are broadly pretty split in thirds across 'better, no change, worse', the two standout ones are immigration and pensions - people strongly believe brexit will mean less immigration (55%) versus 3% who believe it'll mean more. Pensions, 9% believe it'll be good, 28% bad and 34% no difference. 30% say they don't know. 11% of 50-64 year olds believe it'll be good for pensions, 8% of 65+ year olds.
On the topic of May's speech:
74% of people believe having control over immigration from EU countries is the right thing to do, including 54% of Remain voters, 94% of Leave voters. Interestingly that includes 70% of Londoners.
57% believe that seeking to leave the single market with 'the greatest possible' access is the right thing to do, 21% believe it is the wrong thing to do. 51% of Londoners and 50% of Scots agree. Figures on all things regarding the single market are pretty much the same for the question about the customs union, I doubt any more than a handful of the people questioned have the foggiest what the customs union is though.
77% of people believe it's right that we guarantee the rights of EU citizens in exchange for that being reciprocated. 18-24 year olds are actually less likely to think this is right than 65+ year olds.
85% of people believe continuing to work with the EU on security and law enforcement is the right thing to do.
Taking all things together 55% of people believe that May's suggestion would be good for Britain versus 19% who think it would not be good. 32% of Remain voters good, 38% bad. 41% of 18-24 year olds good, 25% bad.
62% believe May's proposal respects the result of the referendum. 56% of Remain voters think so too, with 19% disagreeing.
53% of people would be 'happy' with this outcome, 26% 'unhappy'.
47% of people have a lot/a fair amount of confidence May can achieve what she proposes, 28% not much/no confidence.
20% believe other member states will agree, 56% that they will not.