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|>>|| No. 85776
A week is a long time in politics and that is a month old. Around the same time as when the Brexit Party came about. Predicted voting for the EU election is 40%
|>>|| No. 85788
UKIP have historically done far better in the Euro elections than the generals. The most likely outcome of a swing to the Brexit party at the general election is a Labour majority due to splitting the Tory vote.
The most favourable poll so far for the Brexit party at the general election puts them at 24%. Applying the Electoral Calculus forecast model, that would give them 90 seats, but the Tories would lose 155, ruling out a Con/Brex coalition.
There's an outside possibility of a backdoor BP win if Labour lose a significant vote share to the Lib Dems or ChUK, but it's a fairly slim one - Labour have a rock solid base of support that should pretty much guarantee no worse than a hung parliament, even if they lose most of the remainiacs.
|>>|| No. 85804
This is a weird election. If we don't all vote Conservative tomorrow we're going to get Boris as PM and sleepwalk into a no deal.
>Labour have a rock solid base of support that should pretty much guarantee no worse than a hung parliament
Isn't it pretty much guaranteed that Labour will do no better than a hung parliament with Scotland gone?
|>>|| No. 85805
>Isn't it pretty much guaranteed that Labour will do no better than a hung parliament with Scotland gone?
There are a number of scenarios that give Labour an overall majority; unless there's a Brex-Con pact at the next election to minimise vote splitting, it's the most likely outcome given current polling. The SNP did cost Labour a number of seats, but their main effect is to increase the probability of a hung parliament. Labour are still contenders even with Scotland out of the picture and it's reasonable to expect that a Lab-SNP coalition could work. Corbyn is deeply unpopular with swing voters, but so is May. Fuck knows what would happen with any of the Tory leadership contenders.
|>>|| No. 85808
What do Brexit Party voters think will happen if they "win" the EU Parliament elections? They seem to act like it would be a full on palace coup when in actual fact it'll be half-a-dozen people with very little power and even less time doing what the UKIP MEPs have been doing for the last 15 years.
I'm also personally struggling to even care about these elections because of how redundent they feel, but if anyone would like to point out how wrong and stupid that is feel free.
|>>|| No. 85809
>it'll be half-a-dozen people with very little power and even less time doing what the UKIP MEPs have been doing for the last 15 years.
Saville needs to pay that child support somehow.
|>>|| No. 85815
The election will be treated as a barometer on EU exit and if you've been watching the news lately the Conservatives will soon elect our next PM. High turnout for the Brexit party would inevitably feed into support for the 'Blue Collar' faction in the leadership contest against the centrist 'One Nation Caucus'.
|>>|| No. 85820
Screenshot_2019-05-22 How does the European electi.png
Banks has him covered, surely?
I know that, but I'm talking about the pro-Brexit Party voter's view on things. As far as I can tell MEPs have about as much say in the Brexit process as you or I, but I get the sense BP voters don't see it that way. I mean, look at this shit? What's he talking about? I know it's from the DM, but he can't be the only one who thinks this.
I'm concerned by the cult-like desire for no deal by some people. They don't even bother making a case for it anymore, they just act like every issue the country faces will be sorted overnight, which obviously isn't going to be the case and what these people do afterwards is a complete mystery to me. I don't think it's going to get violent or nowt, but what are the politics of someone who's gotten into the mindset that the mothership is coming to take them away once that doesn't happen?
|>>|| No. 85824
I'm probably throwing my vote away on Change. Jan Vincent-Rostowski is simply a much better candidate than anyone the Lib Dems are putting out who, as always, have to ruin their platform by being utterly mental once you scratch the surface.
In fairness I don't see how he is wrong. If it goes into a BP landslide the vote will remind the liberal (ugh) elite that the British people voted for and still want Brexit. Ultimately it could kill all talk of a second referendum.
>what are the politics of someone who's gotten into the mindset that the mothership is coming to take them away once that doesn't happen
The usual political disillusionment before the next craze. We've had various cult-like parties win elections before only to find out how the sausages are made and we had people seriously thinking the world would end in 2012.
|>>|| No. 85825
Screenshot_2019-05-22 Tories brace for Euro electi.png
The difference between the two examples you gave is that Brexit is (almost definitely) going to happen, rather than the implementation of campaign promises which are always going to be up in the air, and the world literally ending isn't really a "political" stance, nor were many people genuinely convinced that would happen. Even if every major news channel did have a countdown and the collective anxiety released a psychic shock that has led us to our current bizzaro world of loopy US presidents and Sonic the Hedgehog films. In my opinion.
|>>|| No. 85828
I'd love to see how UK politics would shape up in the long term if something like this were to happen to the Tories in the near future. Lest anyone think that's just Labour tribalism, remember that Canadian Conservatives did eventually come back together as an electable party - but a new one. With the chaos of Brexit maybe I'm the only person thinking this, but it'd be good to shake up the party system itself with an event on that scale, especially if we could balance it with a period of stable government. Labour's implosion holds less appeal as an idea since Labour aren't our natural party of government.
If we went 1:1 reproduction I don't think the mathematics support a SNP opposition though, not unless a good chunk of Tories vote SDP or the SNP stand in England.
|>>|| No. 85832
Off to vote for the Brexit Party. Onwards and upwards.
|>>|| No. 85837
I'm voting Congress, Modi's just too divisive for my liking.
|>>|| No. 85840
How do you find him to be specifically racist? He's very proud of having black friends. I'm pretty sure he denies having a problem with moderate Muslims if you watch his videos directly. Do you mean because he's so zoomed in on grooming gangs and terrorism and such that it implies a tendency that's broader than it is, and that people further to the right than him latch onto him?
|>>|| No. 85841
>How do you find him to be specifically racist? He's very proud of having black friends.
|>>|| No. 85843
"I'm not racist, I have black friends" is the oldest cliche in the book about the sort of thing racists say.
|>>|| No. 85844
Tommy's got more chance of getting elected than people think. He's deliberately standing where the BNP made the most traction.
It boils down to this - if voter turnout is low then Tommy wins.
|>>|| No. 85845
Probably because he's recently claimed that teenage Muslim lad who got bullied was actually the real threat, or tries to paint the UK as being "at War" with Muslims in a deliberate attempt to stoak sectarian violence. Obviously you're going to say "yeah, err, but Islam's a religion so it's not racist" but Islam is so closely linked to ethnicity in the UK that it's a dubious distinction to make.
|>>|| No. 85846
That's true but, for example, can Gavin McInnes wave around his Native American wife and mixed-race kids as proof of how un-racist he is? How about Milo's black husband? I guess some black people get called self-hating racists.
|>>|| No. 85847
Lots of people have similar views and make videos about them and so forth but obviously he has to be quite a funny and charismatic guy to get the personality cult around him he has. I guess it's "not racist" to point to crime statistics of a black person did this, and this one did this etc etc. None of it's individually racist but I guess trying to point to a tendency is.
It's like in the 80s Alsatian dogs were "dangerous " and the press would list bites and attacks. By the 90s, it was rottweilers. Now it's pitbulls. Maybe you could do the same thing for any breed of big dog.
|>>|| No. 85849
I actually watched lots of alt-right stuff on YouTube because it was the first time I was exposed to it and I wanted to understand what they believe specifically even if I don't agree. I mean I read up on a lot of bunk in the library, when I was about 15, about UFOs and psychic powers and things but obviously they didn't have far-right-wing stuff and I can support they fact they didn't.
|>>|| No. 85850
What the fuck are you talking about, you jibbering cunt? It's not hard being more charimatic than your average power hungry skin-head. But I suppose if that's your threshold for the Elections on Conservative Party Self-Esteem I can't stop you.
|>>|| No. 85851
Not him but is "jibber" a word? I know "gibber" is and means the same thing, but the alternate spelling and slightly different pronunciation can be valid too.
|>>|| No. 85852
It's entirely possible to be racist against brown-eyed people but not black people, right?
|>>|| No. 85853
I'm saying he likes asking people what he has specifically said that is racist. It's "not racist" to say a grooming gang has done this and a daft militant wog has done that etc etc, until it adds up to a perceived tendency. It's like how it's "not racist" to say crime statistics have shown that black person doing this and another one doing that until that adds up to a perceived tendency. It's like how the press have demonised various breeds of dog over the years. Am I still not being clear?
|>>|| No. 85855
True. In fact alt-light types love going on about how beautifully Sikhs and Jamaicans have integrated. It makes me wonder if they're trying to turn them against Muslims.
|>>|| No. 85856
No, I misspelled it, but frankly I think it's just evidence that the soft G is redundent and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. Also the thread's moved too fast for me to change it.
|>>|| No. 85859
I think you can find elements of what he does comical without being the type of person who pretends to be racist to get a rise out of others. There was that thread "Is anyone else enjoying Tommy Robinson's journalism?" with a screenshot from his Ascot fight. His social media was a beautiful train wreck.
|>>|| No. 85860
There was a huge thread about him here when he'd just quit the EDL. I wish I would have read it now but I never clicked through.
|>>|| No. 85865
Annotation 2019-05-23 112131.jpg
Yeah guys, let's throw milkshakes at elderly war veterans, they totes deserve it because they voted Brexit which makes them all 'fashist natzis!'
I hope all you cunts who've been cheering on this fad are happy now that an elderly bloke has been assaulted and humiliated in the street because of his political views. My 93-year-old Gran is voting for the BP, I take it she deserves a milkshake too?
|>>|| No. 85866
[X] tabloid moralising
[X] emotive writing style
[X] expects the reader respect their elders without question
Grade A insufferable post. The guy himself laughed off being milkshaked. I don't think he needs you to cry on his behalf or make him sound like a helpless old bodach. I don't care about him, but I'm amused that you're angrier than he is. Unless your Gran is allergic to milkshake, think I'll change the channel.
|>>|| No. 85867
Glad you find cowardly unprovoked assaults on elderly people amusing. I suppose by the time the GE rolls around you cunts will be lobbing bricks at Brexit voters in the street and justifying it 'because they're all fascists muh Jo Cox etc etc". You people are the reason why Brexit happened in the first place and why the BP will make massive gains in this election.
(A good day to you Sir!)
|>>|| No. 85868
I see you've neglected to read my post and just typed the reply to the poster you wish had replied to you. I could not be less invested in the European issue.
But hey, maybe total apathy about the affairs of this country is why Brexit happened. Congrats governor, you're right again!
|>>|| No. 85869
The BP will get about the same number of seats as UKIP did in 2014. At the general election, they'll get about the same number of seats as UKIP did in 2017.
There is no revolution afoot. There has been a loss of confidence in the two major parties because they currently have shit leaders, but that doesn't point to any fundamental change in the long-term political landscape. There hasn't been a commensurate increase in support for BrexKIP, because most people think that they're twats. We're no closer to delivering Brexit than we were three years ago, revocation is more likely than no deal and the most likely outcome of the next general election is a Labour majority.
|>>|| No. 85871
I like that you irrationally escalated to brick throwing from milkshake. But also off hand mocked and dismissed the murdering of a member of parliament as irrelevant even though no one else brought it up.
|>>|| No. 85872
Surely you must be trolling us - you do realise the average poster here is clever enough to see through your ridiculous fallacies? We're not in the Sun comment section here.
|>>|| No. 85873
The 'Muslim Defence League' have already been filmed throwing bricks and bottles at Tommy Robinson's supporters in a recent rally, and Remain supporters on Twitter (including a brewery, for fuck's sake) have advocated bricking Saville. I brought up Cox because of the hypocrisy of Remainers who see her as a martyr and accuse Brexit supporters of condoning her murder, yet see nothing wrong with advocating violence against people they don't agree with.
|>>|| No. 85875
>Remain supporters on Twitter (including a brewery, for fuck's sake) have advocated bricking Saville.
No mate, they said to brick fascists. But Nige isn't a fascist, remember? He just cares about British Values. Right?
|>>|| No. 85877
For the sake of argument, are there any legal lads here who can clarify what exactly a 'shaking does count as? Is it assault? Anti-social behaviour?
I'm only playing devil's advocate here but if people were going around chucking milk over women in hijabs I think we'd already have accepted it as, if not literal, then at least on par with a physically violent attack.
|>>|| No. 85878
I went to the polling station just now and got stuck behind a family that all had trouble remembering the first line of their address. Even though they went after one-another and came with their polling cards. The mother on her way out naturally shoved her pram through the line after moaning at the poor elections officer.
There wasn't even free milkshake being given out. Democracy is bullshit.
>It's like in the 80s Alsatian dogs were "dangerous " and the press would list bites and attacks. By the 90s, it was rottweilers. Now it's pitbulls. Maybe you could do the same thing for any breed of big dog.
But for all their charm rotters and pitbulls do have a predilection for biting the face off a 10 year old. Growing up my mate had a rottweiler and while she was a charming character you did definitely had to be careful playing with her.
What are you suggesting here?
It would be battery. Possibly assault if you did so causing them fear of immediate danger.
|>>|| No. 85879
The Newcastle lad was charged with assault and criminal damage (relating to damage to a microphone nige was wearing), so it seems to count as assault. I'd probably want it to if it got done to me, though I have a feeling the police wouldn't do much if it happened away from the spotlight.
|>>|| No. 85884
Can't believe we've got to wait 3 days for the results. Forget bendy bananas and the eurozone disaster, this is the worst thing Europe has ever done.
|>>|| No. 85887
>I like that you irrationally escalated to brick throwing from milkshake.
Always the way with Are Tommeh. Only yesterday three protesters poised with milkshakes apparently got bricked in a pre-emptive strike.
|>>|| No. 85892
>There has been a loss of confidence in the two major parties because they currently have shit leaders
Do you really think that's all it is ladm9? Come on now.
|>>|| No. 85940
The North East have declared: 2 seats for Brexit Party, 1 for Labour.
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