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|>>|| No. 3223
Have any of you bought Bitcoins or spoken to anybody that has?
The underlying principle of removing the role of the banking industry from transactions (or at least limiting its influence) seems noble but it stinks of a giant scam IMO.
|>>|| No. 7232
You missed >50% gains by not buying this routine dip that hits literally every other month.
|>>|| No. 7234
So what would be some ways to make some easy money from all this crypto nonsense? Obviously actually buying in is a mug's game and carries actual risk, so is off the table. Things like a crypto equivalent of Star Citizen and the like. For instance, a company that apparently does nothing quadrupled its value by doing literally nothing other than adding the word blockchain to its name.
|>>|| No. 7237
It's easy to make money if you already have money. If you don't have money... not so much.
|>>|| No. 7238
If I'd put all the bitcoins I spent on drugs between 2012 and 2017 into a bitcoin wallet instead I
probably would have lost the wallet would be stinking fucking rich right now.
|>>|| No. 7240
Really it's the more money you have the easier it is to make a fairly modest return without serious risk taking. If you want to make serious returns off a smaller starting capital then you have to be prepared to take much bigger risks.
|>>|| No. 7242
ITT posters discuss the essential principles of capitalism.
|>>|| No. 7243
So, that aside, anyone have any interesting ideas for skimming the crypto bubble?
|>>|| No. 7244
Write an ebook* about how to make money from the crypto bubble.
*plagiarise generic investment advice books and tropes like "buy low, sell high" until you've hit a hundred pages or so.
now, as for how to get people to buy your book instead of one of the thousands of others that are doubtless trying this stunt? dunno. maybe instead of a book do a website with ads on it.
|>>|| No. 7249
Like a "libertarian" blog? There's so many, and they all talk such bollocks.
|>>|| No. 7253
It is my impression that the dot com bubble was far larger in dollar terms. How fair is it to compare the inflation of a newly created asset class with no price history whatsoever to all the others?
|>>|| No. 7254
Entirely fair. The tulip bubble was caused by a newly created asset class.
Bitcoins at this point have begun to demonstrate themselves to be unfit for purpose. They are volatile, slow, and have outrageous transaction fees, these are all qualities you don't want in a currency. And as a result even the early adopting tech companies who originally supported them (Valve, Microsoft ect) won't touch them now. So with all that in mind, you have to ask yourself, what is the value in this asset or future value.
I don't think there isn't value in crypto currency. Just not this one unless they can magically solve at least any 2 of the 3 problems mentioned above.
|>>|| No. 7255
Ish. The market cap of the entire NASDAQ was about $6.6 trillion at the peak of the bubble. The theoretical "market cap" of all circulating BTC and ETH peaked at about $0.5 trillion.
The difference is that a large proportion of NASDAQ companies had been profitably trading for years before the dot com crash and are still profitably trading today. They had tangible, saleable assets and real revenues. The top five companies in the NASDAQ at the peak of the crash were Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, Oracle and Sun. The first four are still outrageously profitable businesses and Sun were acquired by Oracle in 2010. The current total market cap of the NASDAQ is about $9.5 trillion.
The dot com crash was in many ways equally irrational to the inflation of the bubble. A lot of bullshit companies went bust when everyone realised that they were bullshit, but a lot of fundamentally sound companies became grossly undervalued.
|>>|| No. 7256
>a newly created asset class
>no price history whatsoever
|>>|| No. 7258
What does that graph look like when previous Bitcoin spikes and crashes are plotted on it? It went from practically zero to $30 and then back down to $2 in a short space of time, and the same for $50 to $1000 and back down to $200 during the Gox debacle, which was also a pretty quick boom.
|>>|| No. 7310
>Well if that isn't proof that this is a speculative bubble I don't know what is.
I was an intern at an investment bank during the Dotcom bubble. At its peak, it got so bad that as a budding company seeking capital, all you had to tell a bank was that you were a [x] startup which vaguely had something to do with the [x] Internet or the [x] New Economy, and you already had a crudely made [x] web site of some description. And banks would be chasing you like mad.
It didn't matter if your business plan simply consisted of the words "We will make money selling X to Y in the New Economy", or if you really had no business plan at all. Banks were just completely deluded and threw all caution to the wind because they believed the illusion that nothing could go wrong if you were calling yourself the holy two words of the day, "Internet start-up".
That's what I had to think of when I heard the news that that struggling company "Long Island something something" renamed itself to "Long Island blockchain something".
Some banks during the Dotcom bubble were in on it though. They knew full well that some of the companies that were hastily injected with capital wouldn't last a day. Some of the more criminal banks even turned it into a racket. They juiced up bumbling two-man basement companies to look like profitable entities and even brought them to the stock market and performed IPOs with those shell companies that really weren't worth toffee. But stock buyers were lapping it up. Some of the stocks were twenty times oversubscribed in the run-up to an IPO. And then the banks often turned a hefty profit on top of their IPO fee by secretly dumping all their shares that they had secured for themselves pre-IPO, while ordinary shareholders had to watch the value of their newly acquired stocks dwindle with every day that passed. And before long, many companies like that went tits up like they were always going to, and shareholders were sitting on worthless paper money.
All it ever takes for a racket to work is finding somebody who's even dumber than you. And there was no shortage at all of dumb stock investors in those days.
But that, too, was a sign of the times. When a market is so deluded that nobody actually takes the time anymore to stop and think for a minute, then that has always been a recipe for disaster. And every time, people think they're smarter than the last time. Nobody realised that Dotcoms were the tulip bubble of their day, or that the housing and junk securities bubbles were the tulips of 2007/2008. Everybody was always going to be smart enough to get out before things got too hot. But we all know what happened, and is bound to happen over and over again.
|>>|| No. 7311
>that the housing and junk securities bubbles were the tulips of 2007/2008
The difficulty with this particular example is that, as a result of what was effectively a multi-layered fraud, rather than simply not knowing the value of a tulip an awful lot of people who ended up with tulips had no idea they were even in the market for them.
|>>|| No. 7312
Unless I've misread their post, I think they might be implying that most examples contain some level of multi-layered fraud.
|>>|| No. 7313
Either way, the problem is that small retail investors are under the perpetual illusion that they will make notable amounts of money in the stock and financial markets. They may even succeed at it short term, perhaps even making a killing on one stock at one time.
But the reality is, in the long run, retail investors tend to do exceedingly poorly in the financial markets. And one reason is that time and again, they allow themselves to be fooled and walk into all the traps that are set for them.
|>>|| No. 7314
Not really. With other bubbles, investors typically knew what they were getting into. They just didn't understand what they were investing in. Contrast with the GFC, which came about as a result of actual malice.
|>>|| No. 7316
> They just didn't understand what they were investing in
That's one of the biggest perils you'll ever come across in the financial markets.
If you buy a stock directly, then there is a pretty good chance you will get your head around the basic concept of what you are buying. You buy a part of a company, and companies by and large tend to pay you an annual dividend for the money that you have given them. The only elements of uncertainty are how well that company is going to do economically in the future or what kind of shenanigans speculators will be playing as they push that stock's price up or down.
But all the toxic securities that financial alchemists concocted especially in the run-up to the 2007/2008 crisis were just so horribly constructed that not even the people who had invented them fully understood how they were going to work. Their basic premise was that by putting a number of high-risk, high-premium debts together into a security, they had managed to separate reward from risk. The idea was that the debts contained in those securities would probably not default all at the same time, and that you were going to be able to hedge risk by putting enough bad risks together that were not all going to behave the same way.
And this is what blew up in everybody's face in the financial crisis. Because if the economic situation as a whole deteriorates, those debts will pop indiscriminately left, right and centre, and they proved to be able to bring entire markets down.
The desire to cut corners around the market is about as old as financial markets themselves. There have always been attempts to generate profit that people hoped would beat the markets. But from an economic point of view, the only real value that is ever generated in an economy's financial markets is the profit that commercial companies make during a period and then pay out to their shareholders. That is the only thing that is backed by the economy itself. Everything else is just spreadsheet acrobatics and bound to fail in the long run. And for the retail investor, this means that the only way they will make money is by going back to the basics and buying stocks for their dividend or low-risk, fixed income securities. Their yields will look unspectacular on paper, but you will soon realise that it's impossible to consistently achieve more return on investment with higher risk assets.
|>>|| No. 7317
While that is true, the key distinction with the 2007 crash was that it was the result of cascade mis-selling rather than mania, and needs to be treated differently from your typical bubble.
|>>|| No. 7318
>bought in 2011
>sold and forgot in 2014
>best returns on smart contract coins & utility tokens
>platform coins ARK, ETH, EOS, NEO, NAS
>tokens BAT, MOD, BNB
>10tn by 2020
|>>|| No. 7319
I just can't wait for it to settle down, it's a bit of a nightmare to try and buy drugs at the moment. It's still cheaper to buy small amounts of BTC than anything else, but you risk suddenly losing a tenner or more if you don't complete your purchases in time.
|>>|| No. 7320
Nothing worse than realsing that after all that faffing about you're 0.0001 btc short what you need for your purchase and have to go e-beg a cyber 50p off a mate like you were back in school and needed money for a Freddo an that.
|>>|| No. 7321
One of my coworkers bought around £10K worth of Bitcoin at the beginning of December. And for about ten days or so while Bitcoin was still rising, he kept doing his little jigs around his desk everytime he looked at the latest BTC/GBP quotes on his screen at work.
His £10K has now turned into just over £4K. I tried to tell him in December that he had very likely caught the craze at its very tail end and was only setting himself up for a fall, but he wouldn't listen. Instead, in his imagination, he was already buying a sports car and/or a yacht with the £100K that he was going to make off his £10K.
It's the age old axiom. Do not ever get in on an asset when everybody else is getting in. And get out when people start completely losing their shit. The difficult thing is pinpointing the phase when everybody is so gravely losing their shit that something has run its course and can only go down from that point. But anybody who has ever witnessed market booms and busts will have to admit that they've seen it all before and were warned.
|>>|| No. 7322
Apparently Mark Kepeles of Mt Gox fame stands to gain 88% of 1.12 beellion dollars (at today's price) because the bankruptcy process involves awarding creditors the value of their Bitcoin as it stood in 2014.
In an interesting twist he now says he doesn't want any of it.
|>>|| No. 7323
All of this, and also with proper crazy shit like the whole crypto bollocks it's worth remembering the risk is not merely that the value of your holding may fall, but also that you may have difficulty in cashing out. Ask anyone who got shafted by Porsche.
|>>|| No. 7326
>A man is offering a Welsh council £7.4 million to dig in its tip for his lost Bitcoin
Blimey. You could hire 7.4 million PCSOs with that kind of money.
I don't understand the council's position.
>He also claims the council has “no good reason” to stop him digging for the hard drive - despite council claims any operation could cost millions of pounds and pose serious risks to the environment.
Even if the whole operation costs seven million quid, they'd still come out even with (on balance) no taxpayer money spent.
|>>|| No. 7327
That £7.4m is a 10% share of the found coins. I doubt anyone will put up nearly that much up front.
|>>|| No. 7329
Well the whole story kind of has a Nigerian prince in prison ring to it if you tell it to somebody. But if they find the hard drive, it should leave no doubt in anybody's mind that it was legit and more than a wild goose chase.
Two things though. The hard drive has allegedly been buried in the landfill sinde 2013. It seems kind of unlikely that a hard drive would survive that long under such conditions. A while ago, I found one of my old hard drives in the basement again from about five or six years ago, and I tried connecting it up to my desktop PC to see if there was any data of interest still on it. But it was completely dead, and no matter what I tried to do with it, it wouldn't light up. And that was just from lying on a dusty shelf in the back of a basement room. I am 100 percent sure that it was working fine when I removed it from the computer that it was originally in about six years ago.
I know that you can nowadays rescue data from a hard drive after a fire or after it's been under 50 feet of water and buried in mud, but still. I struggle to imagine that it will be in any kind of condition where the data would be accessible after five years buried under tons of waste, from banana skins to sanitary pads.
And also, if you manage to accidentally throw away a hard drive or laptop which back then already had around 100 grand worth of Bitcoin on it, then you are simply fucking stupid. That doesn't mean it doesn't happen, just that you are fucking stupid.
|>>|| No. 7330
I always end up putting a fiver extra in regardless, which just means I always spend more than I need to. I used to do this even pre-boom, though, so me and my mates did end up making a couple of grand each just by having what amounted to loose change sat in our Dream Market wallets a few years ago. Pissed it all away on more drugs, like.
>It's the age old axiom. Do not ever get in on an asset when everybody else is getting in.
My money bloke always says 'if they're talking about it, you're three months late' which seems to hold pretty true.
I remember looking into it, and considering mining or buying a hundred or so quids worth when I was in uni, which was in 2009ish. I think I even did mine for about a night, I probably had two or three BTC at some point. Ah well, it could have been worse - I'm glad I didn't buy/mine more, because I bet I'd have lost or forgot about it like landfill-lad up there.
|>>|| No. 7331
Bitcoin was a wild card because nobody ever really could have predicted that it would take off the way it did. No matter how hard you are kicking yourself for not buying or mining any in 2009, at the end of the day, you have zero chance of foreseeing something like this.
It's not dissimilar to winning the lottery. You have absolutely no way of knowing which numbers will come up. Some people win millions, while others only ever win a few quid. And likewise, there is no way to know which investments will pay off as hugely as something like Bitcoin.
It's a game of chance and probabilities. And it's one reason why most people, although not for a lack of trying, will never become rich as it were.
|>>|| No. 7333
>My money bloke always says 'if they're talking about it, you're three months late' which seems to hold pretty true.
You could also call it the stock price paradox.
Given enough time, most stocks will almost invariably go up. But when you get in, they will almost never go up. At least not right away, and that's what discourages many investors who then get out as the stock tumbles. But only to see the stock climb again and far beyond their sell point in a few months' time.
In the short term, it's almost impossible to tell, especially for a small retail investor, which way a stock will go. And it's also why short-term traders fail, because those who dictate stock prices have realised it's a magnificently easy way to empty the pockets of more gullible investors who think they can make money betting on short-term ups and downs. It doesn't matter what you do, you have no way of winning this game.
It'd be easy to think all you'd have to do is buy stocks that are down or otherwise cheap, but the problem is that you might well end up buying a stock that either isn't going to do much for the next five years, or if a stock is in a downward trend, you simply have no way of telling if it's going to go down another 20 percent before it really picks up speed to the upside again. Trends tend to perpetuate themselves. Until the day they don't.
What you need in the stock market nowadays more than ever is bulletproof nerves of steel that will allow you to hold on to a stock that you think is promising even if it slides ten percent in one day. And you need infinite patience. Sadly, those two are still no guarantee that you will be earning a noteworthy profit in the long term. But they are pretty much the conditio sine qua non of stock investing.
|>>|| No. 7334
> me and my mates did end up making a couple of grand each just by having what amounted to loose change sat in our Dream Market wallets a few years ago. Pissed it all away on more drugs, like.
At the height of the bitcoin price bubble I worked out what all the btc I'd spent on drugs, just in 2015 alone, would have been worth. Then I cried a bit. Good job I didn't have a way to work it out all the way back to 2012.
|>>|| No. 7335
The way I see it, it was money I never expected to have anyway. I might feel differently if I was struggling for money though, I suppose.
|>>|| No. 7607
You guys remember when the price of tulips recovered?
|>>|| No. 7831
Just checking in to make sure you're all aware another peak is on the way. Don't worry, I know you'll ignore me and you can laugh about tulips when the partial correction happens.
|>>|| No. 7865
I've now cashed out a 30% return while keeping my original stake and it would have been more had I not gone buying drugs. Not too sure why that makes me subject to mockery.
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