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|>>|| No. 85279
I think the UK has become like one of those girlfriends that's always threatening to dump you, but never does.
|>>|| No. 85357
That are commit medium-level traffic offences. Or threaten to, anyway. I presume they'll see a pub on the way and get pissed up on a proper British beer like Stella and then forget.
|>>|| No. 85358
>Are you that muppet that keeps whining about Blairites and "managerial centrism" and just wants the whole thing to burn?
No, that's me and I'm rather bothered you'd insinuate I'd say that. Mostly because I know the implication: That you haven't spent sufficient time dwelling on the causal chain that gave us Brexit, which goes back way before Cameron's promise of a referendum.
You know while I'm all for a second referendum, I've never liked the whole corrupt influence angle. It's definitely an interesting sub-plot, but it takes a lot of the blame off the dire remain campaign that seemingly learned nothing but the wrong lessons from the Scottish referendum. There's no point getting a second referendum just to cock it up and get an even bigger majority for leaving than the first time.
|>>|| No. 85359
>I've never liked the whole corrupt influence angle
I'm sorry if the truth isn't quite to your tastes.
|>>|| No. 85360
I didn't say it wasn't true, I said it was stupid to focus on when it lets the remain campaign off the hook.
Remain didn't lose because it stuck to the law, it lost because it was utterly incompetent. It took the tactics that lost "no" a 15% lead in the Scottish referendum and applied them to an issue where "Leave" had already regularly polled ahead in the pre-referendum period and "Remain" never had such a massive lead to throw away.
(Though let's be funny, since we're probably all going to starve anyway it would be pretty funny to watch us get a final chance to save ourselves and have the would-be heroes screw it all up.)
|>>|| No. 85361
Evaluation of the relative merits of the campaigns is subjective, and implicitly depends on the legitimacy of the referendum. The corrupt influence is objective, and undermines that legitimacy.
|>>|| No. 85363
It made a difference to me - doing the shopping earlier was a fucking nightmare.
Why can't we have a protest tradition where the big ones happen in dying coastal communities to give them an up-tick in revenue? I don't think anyone wins in this aside from the press who avoid going far. What would happen if one day we actually do move the capital to Morecambe, would people still protest in London?
|>>|| No. 85364
I don't like Limmy. He's funny, but I don't like him. If he was one of the lads at work he'd be that one everyone goes quiet around because you never really know what kind of awkward and uncomfortable shit he's going to inflict on everyone.
|>>|| No. 85365
I think he just understands that Twitter is performative, so he doesn't take it seriously. I don't think he'd be the same IRL.
|>>|| No. 85366
That's the vibe I've always got from him, to be fair. His show and his livestreams often have much the same vibe. Let's not even get started on his vines.
He's a genuinely odd lad, I reckon, not just a surreal comic.
|>>|| No. 85367
Is he odd, or does he just express thoughts that most of us might have at some point but few of us would willingly express? I think a lot of Limmy's work is very relatable.
|>>|| No. 85384
That's pretty shallow surface interpretation of what that scene is about and makes me think it went over your head.
|>>|| No. 85490
For fuck sake...
So how do we embed YT videos? I tried the old embeds and a .com and a youtu.be link.
|>>|| No. 85500
I'm assuming that'd fail, then we'd get election (aka referendum v2), Conservatives in the hard/no brexit corner and labour in the soft/revoke corner. No idea who'd win that, would like to see labour win as Jezza has always been very anti-EU.
Failing that we could always, I don't know, make our democracy actually representational
|>>|| No. 85502
Party lines don't divide neatly enough on the subject for that to happen. Expect the 'independent group' to balloon with remainers under those circumstances and spit the vote nationally in a way where no ones seat is safe. If that sounds like an unrealistic idea then you haven't been paying attention to how unrealistic modern politics is.
|>>|| No. 85503
My money is on it eventually it passing. It's not ideal but she is clawing up votes and I feel that Parliament is mostly playing until the last possible minute on the 11th April. For evidence just look at how blasé Parliament's debates seemed over the SI.
I don't see a general election being in anyone's interest. Labour is just as divided as the Tories and will face the same problems once they're asking for something more than voting everything down.
Plus the next GE will likely see Sinn Féin emerge as the largest party in Northern Ireland and Labour inevitably having to seek a coalition with the SNP if they win. We really have enough on our plate right now.
|>>|| No. 85511
The difference is that modern politics breaks for the unrealistic against the former 'sensible' status quo. That makes the independent group less likely.
In the same sort of way, President Clinton is less likely than America electing a dog as president. We're living in the age of the stupid, not the age of the unexpected.
|>>|| No. 85516
>Plus the next GE will likely see Sinn Féin emerge as the largest party in Northern Ireland
That would only help whoever ends up winning. The erosion of the middle has meant that NI is currently represented in Westminster almost entirely by the DUP. All that swing would achieve is reduce the number of sitting MPs, and therefore the number required to achieve a working majority.
|>>|| No. 85517
>My money is on it eventually it passing. It's not ideal but she is clawing up votes
She offered up her own head on a plate and still came up short. The DUP have made it clear that their minds are made up, and all that's left in her own party are two groups of hardliners. She needs Labour votes to carry it, and only a couple of desperate souls have jumped on board so far. The main problem she has now is that she has nothing left to give, so she has to resort to playing chicken.
|>>|| No. 85518
Apparently she's said if it loses a fourth time she'll call a general election, so there's no way Labour would vote for it.
|>>|| No. 85519
The key question there will be whether that's before or after getting a long extension. Or maybe whether she'll sneakily try and ratify it while Parliament is dissolved. Remember that if there is to be an extension, there will be EP elections in May, and to arrange a general election for the same day the formalities need to be done by April 12. It's already too late to make it happen by the confidence process alone, because that requires a 14-day timeout.
|>>|| No. 85522
Why are people so outraged about the possibility of new European Parliament elections? Is it just the symbolism of it or is there a real issue with it?
|>>|| No. 85523
I think the EU countries don't want it as the MEPs we elect are likely going to be eurosceptic Brexiteers, who will disrupt the European Parliament.
|>>|| No. 85525
So we're living in exactly the same age that saw Kennedy beat Nixon?
Pull your head out of the arithmetic for 5 minutes and consider the big picture. Nationalists want a border poll and they want it while Brexit is ongoing despite the knowledge Belfast will catch fire. The last election saw a Sinn Féin and DUP get equal seats in Northern Ireland Assembly while moderate movements have been brushed aside.
Ultimately it is a single issue that the most strong and stable of governments would struggle with but now we sit with the legislature dictating policy.
>so she has to resort to playing chicken
Which has been the only card worth anything. Labour's customs union has all the appeal of a wet fart and a GE means we're staying in until 2020 with many MPs looking nervously at their leave constituencies.
|>>|| No. 85527
Well, it costs money and we're totally unprepared to run it but mostly it comes down to the symbolism.
|>>|| No. 85528
It's PR, so even if there's vote splitting between UKIP and the Brexit Party, they'll both end up there. The fun part will be figuring out which group to join when they're there. They probably won't want to be in the same group, but at the same time neither of them will want to share a group with Marine Le Pen.
As mentioned above, there is also the awkwardness, in reality as well as optics, of having these elections three years after voting to leave. Someone really needs to get across to Leave voters that this shitshow is ultimately their fault. They were warned about it, and now they're getting indignant about getting exactly what they voted for. This isn't some deep state conspiracy to thwart The Will Of The People™.
|>>|| No. 85561
>British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government has a plan to enshrine in law a customs arrangement with the European Union in a bid to win over the opposition Labour Party to back a Brexit deal, The Sunday Times newspaper reported.
>“Under the new plan, the prime minister would offer to rewrite the government’s withdrawal bill to enshrine a customs arrangement in law,” the newspaper said.
Wouldn't it be a laugh if the vote 4 still fails.
Is the world ready for Tommy Robinson MEP?
|>>|| No. 85562
I think the world is far more ready for ARE Tommy then it ever was for ARE Simon's Nick or ARE Nige.
|>>|| No. 85577
MEP elections in May, huh? Simultaneous referendum?
|>>|| No. 85578
The new Brexit deadline is Halloween, 29 weeks away. The legal minimum amount of time needed for a referendum in this country is 26 weeks.
The odds on a second referendum must have narrowed considerably.
|>>|| No. 85579
What're the odds I can get a serious party to put me up as a candidate because all the serious contenders don't want to take up such a dead end?
|>>|| No. 85580
So another 6 months of having to plan for all possible outcomes. Fucking great.
BRB, heading over to apolloduck to buy ferries.
|>>|| No. 85581
>The legal minimum amount of time needed for a referendum in this country is 26 weeks.
Where do you get that number from? The only number that's enshrined in law is 10 weeks from announcement of the poll.
|>>|| No. 85583
While I understand the point about the Electoral Commission, bear in mind that we just had a bill rushed through all stages in the Commons with a lot of debate and a number of contentious votes in a little under five hours.
Plus I think that if the decision were taken to stage a referendum on the deal, the EU would happily grant a further extension, since it would be abundantly clear what we were going to do with it.
|>>|| No. 85584
The referendum seems like a catch 22, sure it would give Parliament an answer (?) but on the other it requires Parliament to actually pass a bill on having a referendum.
>Plus I think that if the decision were taken to stage a referendum on the deal, the EU would happily grant a further extension, since it would be abundantly clear what we were going to do with it.
That depends on how much we mess about. The Multiannual Financial Framework happens in 2020 and decides the EU budget commitments for the next 7 years - obviously we'd want to have fucked off by then.
|>>|| No. 85585
The EU has shown they've been more than reasonable. If a referendum bill is put forward and held up at the last stage for the EC to do their thing, but the statutory periods run past the Halloween deadline, they'd certainly react a lot better than they have done. Remember, the main objection from the European side was that we were asking for an extension without any hint as to what we were seeking the extension for. Indeed, I believe both Juncker and Tusk have explicitly said as much.
|>>|| No. 86482
We lost three cod wars against Iceland, a country with a population of 360,000 and no actual navy. If Boris decides to deploy his "fisheries protection fleet", I can only imagine that London will end up being destroyed in a nuclear attack.
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