So chaps, how has the ULEZ expansion affected you at all? Especially if you live outside of London in the Home Counties? Because from what I hear results are mixed at best and I'm keen to know how much border regions have actually benefited from this in terms of air pollution reduction? I have a hunch that it will mostly be biased toward the centre of the City.
Plus, racist gammonwank aside, there are a lot of people upset with it. Could it be a moneymaking scheme in the long run? What about when all the cars are compliant - will they change the rules? Boris thought of this to begin with and I get the feeling that if the Tories were in, in London, this would get a more critical look. Plus if you think Labour are getting more Tory-esque, that's a reason to do so. Sadiq has been a goodish Mayor but that doesn't mean he's a good guy necessarily.
What do you think? Coming here to ask because Twitter is full of sanctimonious Rik types and the usual array of angry gammons venting at each other and talking over you. Pic is how I feel after talking to them.
>Could it be a moneymaking scheme in the long run?
The income from ULEZ charges and fines all go straight to TfL and only make up about 2% of their income. If it was just about making money, it would have been much easier and far less controversial to just increase tube fares by a few pence.
95% of vehicles in London are already ULEZ compliant, because the rules really aren't especially strict; any petrol car made after 2006 or any diesel made after 2015 is compliant. Nearly all affected vehicles are diesels. ULEZ revenues are declining rapidly, partly because of the natural turnover of cars reaching the end of their useful life and partly because people can just sell their old diesel to someone outside London and buy a similarly-priced petrol car.
ULEZ alone has had a small but significant impact on air quality, mainly because of the relatively small number of vehicles that are affected. It has to be seen as part of a broader package of measures - bus and taxi upgrades, action on wood burning, loads of boring stuff involving industrial plant and boilers - that taken together have had an undeniable and massive impact on air quality in London.
Looking at the protesters, there seems to be a huge overlap with the anti-lockdown/antivax/climate denial/15 minute cities crowd. There's a cohort of middle-aged Facebook users who, for various reasons, have become very paranoid. They're annoyed about some or other government policy, they go on Facebook to moan about it and are persuaded that it's actually just a hoax perpetrated by them to control the masses. Once they've bought in to one conspiracy theory, they seem to start collecting them like Pokemon. On one level it's understandable that people have lost trust in politics, but it's still startling how quickly people can make the leap from "I don't like being told to wear a mask" to "they are engaged in a secret global conspiracy to eradicate humanity". It's also depressingly predictable that they often seems to be a transparent euphemism for "Jews".
>>98260 I appreciate the time you've put in here. Thanks.
Do you have a source on that 2% income and the few pence increase?
On the other hand fares in the last year went up 5.9% on average, and with the most popular trip of Brixton to Oxford Circus at £2.80 to £2.97, and with 594486 journeys per year (at least in 2022) that adds up to £101,062.62; crude figures but if you look at all these here taken from the link below and do the arithmetic it adds up quick, and those are just the most popular journeys.
Basically I'm saying it doesn't need to be much of a moneymaker now.
But I'm talkng about the long run, as in once all cars are compliant, what next? Will they get rid of it or find something else to make money off,, say the battery's production origins the pollutants involved in production and safety, for example? It's not implausible that they could do that
What is the small but significant impact ULEZ has had on the air pollution? I'm all ears. And yes, I can't stand that lot. I have very strong views about the lockdown from a civil liberties perspective but those guys are just surface level morons. I had the jab and it was fine. I didn't grow a second head under my armpit, the liars... I'm from Essex. Already got one there!
In 2022/23, the ULEZ generated £224m. There was a big peak immediately after the previous expansion, followed by a fairly rapid decline. We don't yet have data for the 2023 expansion, but we'd expect a similar pattern. We expect ULEZ revenue to drop to about £100m by the end of next year.
TfL's revenue in the most recent budget was about eight billion quid, forecast to increase to about nine billion. Their financial position in recent years has been complicated and volatile, mainly because the pandemic massively reduced passenger numbers - they were expecting around £5bn in fare revenue in 20/21, but because of the pandemic took less than £2bn. The post-pandemic recovery in passenger numbers has happened more slowly than anticipated, in part due to industrial action. Passenger revenue was still down on pre-pandemic levels in 22/23, but they expect to top £5bn for this FY. 5.9% was a big fare increase in absolute terms, but of course that's against a backdrop of very high inflation and lower-than-normal passenger numbers.
A number of scientific papers have been published on the impacts of ULEZ, based on air quality monitoring data across London. Air quality has quite dramatically improved in London over a fairly short space of time, particularly NOx emissions. There's some disagreement about how much of the improvement can be attributed directly to ULEZ, but everyone agrees that ULEZ has had an impact. A similar picture emerges in other European cities that have implemented LEZ schemes - it's not enough on its own, but it does make a difference. We've also seen a reduction in hospitalisations due to conditions like COPD and asthma within the ULEZ area.
It's not impossible that they'll keep tinkering with the ULEZ rules to maintain revenues, but I'm not especially convinced. ULEZ revenues have been lower than expected, the revenue has fallen quickly after each expansion and the Mayor's office don't seem too bothered about it. If I were a motorist, I'd be paying more attention to the congestion charge - it increased by 30% in 2020 and there's obvious scope to expand the zone to cover a larger area.
>>98285 Before I delve into all this, I will say that I don't like the one size fits all approach. People should be allowed to apply for exemptions on an individual basis, imo. They should of course, be required to submit some evidence.
