What's the best hedge against a global recession or a decade of stagflation following covid, outside of the property that we can't afford or REITs?
I'm hatching an idea that it might be investments in transportation infrastructure to address supply bottlenecks - China being capable of mass producing the low-end consumer goods that will keep people spending even as prices rise (aside from cars that are fucked). My other idea might be the space sector as an area of new economic growth using something like SSIT to balance out declines elsewhere.
I thought I was on the upper limit of what the company would pay me but I just got a 15% raise and barely had to ask for it.
The only downside is that the senior management suddenly want everyone back in the office 2 days a week so they can feel important again. The office is noisy and unproductive so I'll get less work done.
Without meaning to shit up a thread about interesting investments and inflation, I feel compelled to point out that the big "return to the office" is not about productivity, it's about control. People who spend enough time away from the office might get the idea into their head that spending more time with family is important, or that they can make more friends outside of work, or that they can afford to be more ambitious with their time.
As always, it's a power struggle, and I will also add that if working from home were permanent, then we should expect to see companies making ever increasing use of surveillance technology to make sure people aren't doing any of the above, i.e. blockers on certain websites, activity monitors, obligatory sign-on times and "stand-up" meetings.
Microsoft Teams already has a feature that records your mouse movements and any periods of inactivity, supposedly so that it can mark you as "away" when necessary, but it's not hard to imagine how this data could be used for monitoring.
>>9187 > it's not hard to imagine how this data could be used for monitoring
It actively is used for monitoring. Microsoft are quite open about that fact when they speak to enterprise/corporate IT environments. There are much worse tools out there already, though, that actively spy on workers; start with googling "desk occupancy sensor" for a start and go down the rabbit hole.
Protip: The moving images, animations on continuously running videos on a website such as ArsTechnica fool it and a) continually activate Teams and b) disable the screensaver. Use this information as you will (and saves buying one of those devices that jiggle the mouse for you).
>The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 on Thursday, sending a possible warning signal that a recession could be on the horizon. The bond market phenomenon means the rate of the 2-year note is now higher than the 10-year note yield.
>This part of the yield curve is the most closely watched and typically given the most credence by investors that the economy could be heading for a downturn when it inverts. The 2-year to 10-year spread was last in negative territory in 2019, before pandemic lockdowns sent the global economy into a steep recession in early 2020. When the curve inverts, “there has been a better than two-thirds chance of a recession at some point in the next year and a greater than 98% chance of a recession at some point in the next two years,” according to Bespoke.
>In general, a simple way to look at the importance of the yield curve is to think about what it means for a bank. The yield curve measures the spread between a bank’s cost of money versus what it will make by lending it out or investing it over a longer period of time. If banks can’t make money, lending slows and so does economic activity. While the yield curve has sent somewhat reliable signals about pending recessions, there is often a long time lag and analysts say there needs to be corroborating evidence before investors need to fear a recession is around the corner.
It's not a sure-thing but you might want to hope for a good rice harvest this year. My guess is the market will still bump following the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War but that things will start coming undone as we get into winter.
