Ok well I've never done ROI calculations before, so I'm not sure how to make use of the chance of success.

My back of large A4 fagpacket calculations initially focused on a baseline social cost without the grant for that three year period vs social cost with the vaccine. But I realised you can just jump straight to the jugular of social cost savings, something like this:

https://rentry.co/cfe43

No idea if that's right. See if anyone else chimes in with same answer.
You started OK, but I have no idea what this 0.9 business is on your third step.

>>8928

God, I'm a thicko. I was reading the DALY figure in the question as "DALYs lost as across the whole population per year", i.e. 1 DALY lost for an entire year of new cases, but it's 1 DALY lost for every new case. No wonder I was off by orders of magnitude.

Thanks, mate. I'll give this another stab from start to finish.

>>8928

I took another crack and came to the same answer: https://rentry.co/gwysq

I can't think of another way I could be calculating this. For a while I was "umming" and "aahing" about what "success" means for the grant i.e. success of the application or success of the grant working? But I realised it's probably the latter.

1 DALY per case, not per year, puts us at 270B and the chance of working then cuts us down to a more reasonable figure.